Preliminary results from a seasonal adjustment of Cambodia’s official consumer price index (CPI) indicate significant seasonality in the series. Although the seasonal factors mirror the country’s main food production cycle, the original series has itself been volatile in recent years, and because of the procedures used in its compilation, it is particularly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. The inflationary momentum abated substantially in 1999, with inflation towards the end of the year running at a quarterly annualised rate of 6.6 percent, compared to 17.2 percent in the same period the previous year.

Contents

Abstract
Foreward
Seasonal Decomposition
Results
Discussion
    Seasonal Partterns
    Adjusted Data and Trends--Monthly Changes
Conclusion
Appendix One: X 12-Arima Options Used for the CPI
Appendix Two: Seasonally Adjusted CPI Series
Appendix Three: Expcerpts form X-12 Arima Output

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